M2 Analysis From E3 2010

Billy Pidgeon

In a series of demos on the show floor and offsite events during the recent E3 2010 in downtown Los Angeles, videogame publishers, platform vendors and other industry players presented carefully prepared cases for prospective market share increases to buyers, partners, the press, analysts and, ultimately, targeted hardcore and mainstream gamers.

Powerful factors are adding considerable complexity to the dynamics of the rapidly maturing videogame industry:
  • mass market access
  • convergent platform expansion
  • the effects of a severe economic downturn

This has added to the complexity of navigating an extended middle stage in the current seventh generation console cycle.

As a result, the industry's competition for a greater share of consumers' leisure time and entertainment budget has increased exponentially, as have the inherent risks and potential rewards for vendors and publishers.

As it has at past E3's, the focus this year remains on the console and dedicated handheld sector that drives the highest revenue to unit ratio, dominates the traditional retail outlets and maintains the highest advertising spend. Prospects for the three console vendors remain crucial to more industry players as retailers and publishers positions on the respective consoles and handhelds will a major determinant in those players' futures, particularly in the largest regional market, North America.
PC Gaming

PC games have increased their presence at E3 this year commensurate with worldwide revenue and growth in business models and distribution outlets beyond traditional brick and mortar retail. Massively multiplayer online games such as Blizzard's StarCraft II, Sony Online Entertainment's DC Universe and Star Wars The Clone Wars Adventures, Electronic Arts' A.P.B. and Star Wars Knights of the Old Republic and Warner Bros. Interactive Entertainment's Lego Universe are among the most likely to have strong impact in 2011. StarCraft II may have the biggest impact even if the title is not a hit in North America, as this is one of the most highly anticipated titles in Asia in recent times.
DC Universe showcased at Sony Online's booth with John Lee and John Smedley.
Microsoft

Microsoft's Xbox 360, currently in second place with worldwide sales of over 40 million units through March 2010, revealed Kinect for Xbox 360, the new name for the camera-based motion control system previously announced as Project Natal.

Kinect demos stressed the freedom from the controller and natural interface of the system, which incorporates voice recognition and can track multiple players' bodies in a fashion similar to optical motion capture. Gestural and voice control of the menus in the Xbox 360 dashboard resembled the computer control routine from the film "Minority Report," and along with Microsoft's party games, Ubisoft's Your Shape: Fitness Evolved and Harmonix' Dance Central were standout demos, but it was a demo of Star Wars featuring lightsaber gameplay that drew the biggest applause from the ubergeek audience.

While Microsoft did not announce a firm date (other than November 2010) or price for Kinect, leaked promotional materials show a $149.99 price point. Microsoft asserts that the $150 price point is "a placeholder." Kinect demos well and will help Xbox 360 to penetrate into the mainstream and to gain more players in the household.

For the hardcore audience, Microsoft demoed Gears of War 3, Halo: Reach and also showed Activision's Call of Duty: Black Ops, announcing that there will be downloadable add-on content exclusive to Xbox LIVE. In another exclusive, Microsoft announced that Xbox Live Gold subscribers would get over 3600 live sporting events per year, including college sports, via ESPN for free.
Sony

Sony Computer Entertainment's press event primarily featured impressive stereoscopic 3D for PS3 (demoed with Sony's own upcoming Killzone 3 and Gran Turismo) and Move, Sony's optical and gyroscopic motion controller system. The audience viewed the 3D PS3 games with polarized glasses at the event, but the games are optimized for proprietary active shutter glasses for in-home use. The PS3 is currently 3D capable and 3D games such as Super Stardust and Wipeout are available for download from PlayStation Network. 3D Blu-ray films will also be available this year for play on PS3.

Sony revealed the pricing for Move controllers as $49.99 for the primary Move motion controller and $29.99 for the optional add on navigation controller. Sony announced a Sports Champions Move bundle for $99 that will contain the Sports Champion software, a Move motion controller and a PlayStation Eye camera, which is necessary to use the Move system. Move does not demo for spectators as effectively as Wii or Kinect for Xbox 360, so hands-on trials will be crucial. Unlike Wii and Kinect, Move's strength is its usability for hardcore games as well as for casual games.

Sony unveiled a new promotional campaign for its handheld PlayStation Portable (PSP) that connects to the company's successful Kevin Butler campaign and targets a younger but still hardcore market. This is a good move by Sony, as initial PSP marketing targeted an older hardcore console gamer demographic, which effectively expanded the handheld market beyond Nintendo's primarily younger and more mainstream handheld audience for GameBoy and DS. PSP is less expensive now and targeting younger gamers will expand its base. Still, Sony must try harder to improve PSP performance, as attach rates for PSP remain very low and PSP Go, with its download-only software play, has not had a successful run and appears unlikely to catch on.

PlayStation Network, which Sony has historically differentiated as free for everyone in contrast to Xbox Live's premium service necessary for online gameplay, will now have a tiered service model. Unlike Xbox Live, non-paying PSN gamers will be able to play against others online, but the new paid service, PlayStation Plus, has features that hardcore gamers will want. The paid service will cost $49.99 per year or $17.99 for 3 months, and will give subscribers access to some designated downloadable games for trial periods and to others for the duration of the subscription. Subscribers will also get exclusive special content, discounts and early access to demos and beta trials. The paid subscriptions may garner increased commitment in more frequent and longer online gameplay for subscribers and will help Sony defray the considerable costs for bandwidth and online services.
Nintendo

Nintendo's executives, including superstar game designer Shigero Miyamoto, used their press event to claim continued momentum and market dominance in defiance of reports of some Wii uptake slowdowns due to supply issues and saturation.

Nintendo claims that independent research indicates considerable consumer intent among non-owners to buy Wii, and points to Nintendo positions in top ten charts as proof of higher than reported attach rates and of Nintendo games' "evergreen" status against historically short sales windows for competitive software. While it is true that Nintendo titles have dominated the charts and have extended shelf life, these are exclusively first party Nintendo titles and are usually strong franchises such as Mario and Legend of Zelda.

Unlike Sony and Microsoft, Nintendo has no plans to augment Wii at this point in the cycle. Instead, Nintendo is expecting to extend its installed Wii base and increase attach rates with new titles based on strong franchises, including the recently release Mario Galaxy 2 and the upcoming Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword. Nintendo's big reveal was its new 3DS handheld, which uses proprietary layered screen technology for glasses free 3D graphics with realistic depth effects. Nintendo did not announce pricing or a release date other than "this fiscal year" which translates to before March 31, 2011. We believe the price will be approximately $250, and that while a late Q4 release would be ideal for Nintendo and for retailers, a Q1 2011 launch is more likely.

Developers are excited about the new handheld, which includes a smaller touchscreen below the somewhat larger 3D screen utilizing high powered graphics hardware whose make and specs Nintendo is characteristically reluctant to reveal. The system will also support 3D film playback (How to Train Your Dragon will be one of the first) and the handheld has two cameras on the outer casing to take 3D photos. The game and film demos on Nintendo's exhibit floor were impressive. We believe the 3DS will be very successful, but also that Nintendo will continue to sell DSi hardware and software well into the 3DS' life cycle.
Appleand Gaming

While media covering the technology market perpetuate the narrative that Apple's iPhone and iPad are disrupting the games industry, Apple had no impactful presence at the show.

Although there were games running on iPhone and iPad in some publishers' booths, the platforms' small footprints reflected a similarly ancillary revenue share for those games in publishers' portfolios.

Wanda Meloni

This year's showing at E3 proved there are still a number of companies forging their own way and doing well in the process. I found several such companies that are positioning themsevles well for growth. Here are my favorite picks from the show.
Bigpoint To Use Cross-Media Promotion

Bigpoint is definitely a company to watch as they are starting to make their mark in the US. Originally a German company, Bigpoint was acquired by NBC Universal’s Peacock Equity Fund and GE Commercial Finance in 2008 for $110 million.

The big push for Bigpoint at E3 their Battlestar Galactica MMO.

What is interesting with the marketing strategy for Battlestar Galactica is that it will be launched exclusively through the SyFy channel. Given that this is one of NBC’s stations, it makes sense. We expect to see more cross-media marketing as companies look to better reach their targeted demographic.
First Time at E3 for Nexon

This was the first year that Nexon exhibited at E3 and they had a great showing. Nexon has methodically been building up their presence in the US and had three MMOs they were showcasing.

The recently released Dungeon Fighter already has over 220 million registered users. The other two games showcased at E3 were Vindictus and Dragon Nest. (image is from upcoming MMO Vindictus)

Most of the other companies on the show floor were sporting some type of initial upfront payment. Nexon, however is continuing is successful free to play business model and is clearly planting its flag as a leader in the U.S. market with their presence at the show.
Instant Action - YouTube of Gaming

Another company to keep an eye on is Instant Action. There are several factors that Instant Action has going for it. Of course the obvious point to note is the addition of Louis Castle as the company’s CEO.

"InstantAction is thrilled to be part of the hot topic of in-browser gaming and cloud computing.  Our strategy to build a platform which combines the strengths of multiple technologies into one clean experience enables the transition of our industry from packaged goods to entertainment software as a service, said Louis Castle, CEO of InstantAction. "InstantAction is unique in this approach and thus, we believe, preferable to other hybrid solutions which offer a disjointed experience."

The second is that InstantAction is owned by IAC. IAC is a multi-billion dollar media conglomerate owned by Barry Diller, the same Barry Diller that was so successful with the Home Shopping Network, QVC and Ticketmaster. One thing Barry knows is media and the consumer, and it shows in some of the other online properties he has been quietly amassing that include: Zwinky, Vimeo, MyFunCards.
Unity Looks to Move the Industry Forward

Unity did not have a booth presence at the show, but I did meet with their new VP of Strategy, Brett Seyler.

Of priority for Unity and their ongoing support for developers is the continuing trend that more experienced game developer are opting out of large companies to start their own small game studios. (See our previous BRIEF - The Gaming Renaissance)

With this growing movement to independent gaming the question and concern for Seyler is the discussion he puts forward to the industry:
  • more distribution structure
  • new monetization models
  • more funding opportunities

"We feel like we've made really great progress helping developers author and deploy 3D content quickly and broadly in the last couple years, but we need to keep thinking about how to serve developers.  With new platforms like Android, iOS, the web and specifically destination platforms like Facebook gaining traction as viable, low barrier markets, there are new challenges in acquire users and monetizing content effectively.  Games are more of a service on these new platforms than they've ever been before and we want to see new solutions in the publishing tool chain to make developers lives easier."

There are currently over 1000 Unity iPhone published and at the launch of the iPad there were 20 iPad titles. One company at the show using the Unity engine is Bigpoint, who used it for Battlestar Galactica.

Unity has established an interesting partnership with dimeRocker, a self-publishing solultion that enables game developers to deploy and monetize across social networks.
Trinigy and Vision Engine

Another company plugging away, making inroads into the US market is Trinigy, the company behind the Vision game engine. They have been gaining ground, signing more developers and supporting 3rd party solutions.




(Trinigy's Vision Engine was used in Arcania, from DreamCatcher Interactive)

Danie Conradie, US CEO of Trinigy, "Stereoscopic 3D and motion controls were definitely the news of the show. As the developer of the multi-platform Vision Game Engine, anything the console manufacturers do to extend the life of their platforms is highly relevant and interesting to us. Of course, as a game engine developer, I am also continually impressed with the level of graphics on display at E3, and the quality of graphics that are being rendered in real time. On a more personal level, I really enjoyed seeing Arcania, which used our engine and was on full display at the show."
Darkworks hasMiddleware for Stereoscopic 3D

One of the more interesting technology companies at the show was most definitely Darkworks, a Paris-based company that provides 3D stereoscopic tools and middleware for the entertainment industry. Darkworks announced their TriOviz SDK for 3D stereoscopic development back in March and is now signing up developers.

TriOviz's 3D stereoscopic SDK supports multiple platform development including Xbox 360, PS3, and PC. TriOviz was used by Rocksteady on Batman Arkham Asylum to provide anaglyph 3D. Epic is also using TriOviz for the current 3D Gears of War demo.

Louise Curcio

E3 showcases many games for adults, but kids are the future of this business, a new generation, playing games in large numbers and spending so much time playing that parents limit their access. Below are my favorite games-to-watch that contain something "advertisable" that will attract kids and a game-play experience that will keep them coming back for more!
Best Technology Innovation - 3DS

Nintendo's 3DS will be the hands down favorite for kids Fall 2010 - reigniting the portable category and making many holiday wish lists thanks to its new 3D graphics. The 3D screen, which works without 3D glasses, will give Nintendo a point-of-difference so they can sell more hardware.


They just need to figure out how to showcase the 3D visual benefits on a TV commercial.
Most Creative Game Play - InviZimals

The sleeper in portable platform for kids may be Sony's PSP with a new game called InviZimals - a game designed to go straight after the kid market. This gem seemed was hidden upstairs all the way in the back at the Sony Booth at E3.

It is a departure from the core 18+ PSP gamer and it's very clever. It may be what Sony needs to bring more kids to the PSP. Using a PSP camera attachment sold with the game, kids go on quests in the real world hunting and capturing "monsters" all around them. Kids capture and collect the monsters, make them stronger through battles, trade them with their friends and use them in single player or multi-player fights. The concept is very clever - use the real world to capture the monsters through augmented reality and the virtual world to battle the monsters. This will be a title to watch if Sony marches out the TV marketing dollars on this one.


Many of us in the industry can't wait for Fall 2010 - so we can see how two mega kid brands - Star Wars: the Clone Wars and Lego - deliver an online play experience. There is not doubt that these brands will attract kids online - the question is - will the online experience augment the brand in new ways that keep the kids coming back week after week.
Best New Online Kids World Based on a TV Series - Clone Wars Adventures

Clone Wars Adventures from Sony Online Entertainment is a fun-filled, browser-based game tied into the hugely popular TV series Star Wars: the Clone Wars on Cartoon Network. It is targeted to kids under 13 and is considered by SOE to be a social network game or virtual world where kids hang out in hubs, meet Star Wars characters and play over 20 Clone Wars themed mini-games.

Kids will enjoy the Jedi Training room complete with light saber training with Obi-wan. There are spaceship battles, speeder bike races and a "tower defense" mini game that will capture kids attention for hours. Similar to Free Realms from SOE, this is a free-to-play world with both subscription and micro transactions. Launch Date: October 2010
Best Online World Based on a Toy Line - Lego Universe

Lego is one of the strongest toy brands on the planet and spans a large age group - for a toy line. The company estimates that kids spend 5 billion hours a year playing with the bricks. So, imagine if that experience could be replicated online. Wait no longer, on October 26 Lego Universe will arrive! In this family-friendly online game, kids build themselves a custom minifigure and go on adventures, completing challenging missions and earning large supplies of Lego bricks.

Kids can build anything they imagine (from simple to complex) and then bring their creations to life by programing them to respond and react to in-game events. This game requires a retail purchase of $39.99 and after one month of free-play it requires a monthly subscription of $9.99. This is a departure from the typical online business model for kids - free-to-play with a subscription add-on. The world is developed by Net Devil and distributed at retail by Warner Brothers.
Most Creative Brand Extension – Epic Mickey

All I can say on this one is WOW! Famous game designer, Warren Spector, has created a new look and environment for Mickey Mouse that is fresh and inviting – a little bit darker – slightly morphed from the original. And, the game play is fresh as it offers three types of game play: adventure, platform and RPG. An innovative drawing and erasing game mechanic gives the player the power to create or destroy things in the world. How cool is it to have the power to change the world in order to save it? We look forward to seeing how Epic Mickey becomes a video game hero! The game is developed by Disney Interactive Studios exclusively for Wii – a great business move for Nintendo.